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It might be pointed out that where economic activity is concentrated in transfers of wealth rather than its creation, gambler's ruin results in most of the wealth being held by a very small number of participants. We see this in the stock market when speculative activity is the norm rather than long-term dividend producing investment Speculation early surrender: player has the option to surrender before dealer checks for Blackjack. The gambler's fallacy exposed Rules This is the fallacious step in the argument. If the coin is fair, then by definition the probability of tails must always be .5, never more (or less), and the probability of heads must always be .5, never less (or more). While a run of five heads is only 1 in 32 (0.03125), it is 1 in 32 before the coin is first tossed. After the first four tosses the results are no longer unknown, so they don't count. The probability of five consecutive heads is the same as four successive heads followed by one tails. Tails is no more likely. Each of the two possible outcomes has equal probability no matter how many times the coin has been flipped previously and no matter what the result. Reasoning that it is more likely that the next toss will be a tail than a head due to the past tosses is the fallacy. The fallacy is the idea that a run of luck in the past somehow influences the odds of a bet in the future. Any player may "go bank," the first claim to do so belonging to the punter immediately on the right of the banker; the next to the player on his left, and so on alternatively in regular order. If two players on opposite sides desire to "go bank," they go half shares.
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Chuck-a-luck Gaming machines In December of 1999 I wrote the story below about Fred Marino suing Discover Card. In the wake of that lawsuit, last week Discover Card signed an agreement in California Superior court it will not operate merchant accounts with online casino companies that may do business with California residents. Since it is hard to tell if the customer is from California this may mean that players will not be able finance their online gambling with a Discover Card. There are many scenarios where the gambler's fallacy might superficially seem to apply, where it in fact does not. Modern online virtual wheels come in both varieties. Virtual Roulette wheels are programs that utilize random number generating technology to govern the motions of the wheel. This gives the wheel the randomness it needs so that outcomes are difficult, some say impossible, to predict. The right to begin having been ascertained, the banker takes his place midway down one of the sides of an oval table, the croupier facing him, with the waste-basket between. On either side the banker are the punters (ten such constituting a full table). Any other persons desiring to take part remain standing, and can only play in the event of the amount in the bank for the time being not being covered by the seated players. Certain rules changes are employed to create new variant games. These changes, while attracting the novice player, actually increase the house edge in these games. Double Exposure Blackjack is a variant in which the dealer's cards are both face-up. This game increases house edge by paying even-money on blackjacks and players losing ties. Double Attack Blackjack has very liberal blackjack rules and the option of increasing one's wager after seeing the dealer's up card. This game is dealt from a Spanish shoe, and blackjacks only pay even money. Because of its attraction for wealthy players, a casino may win or lose millions of dollars a night on the game, and the house's fortunes may even affect the bottom line of a corporation's quarterly profit and loss - notations of the effects of major baccarat wins and losses are frequent in the quarterly reports of publicly-traded gaming companies. Consider a flipping coin game with two players where each player having 50% chance of winning each flip. After a flip the loser transfers one penny to the winner. The game ends when one player has all the pennies. If the number of flips is infinite, the probability that the game will eventually end is 100%. If player one has n1 pennies and player two n2 pennies , the chances P1 and P2 that players one and two, respectively, will end penniless are:
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